3.4 Margining for Calendar Spreads
The group took note of the international practice of levying very low margins on calendar spreads. A calendar spread is a position at one maturity which is hedged by an offsetting position at a different maturity: for example, a short position in the six month contract coupled with a long position in the nine month contract. The justification for low margins is that a calendar spread is not exposed to the market risk in the underlying at all. If the underlying rises, one leg of the spread loses money while the other gains money resulting in a hedged position. Standard futures pricing models state that the futures price is equal to the cash price plus a net cost of carry (interest cost reduced by dividend yield on the underlying). This means that the only risk in a calendar spread is the risk that the cost of carry might change; this is essentially an interest rate risk in a money market position. In fact, a calendar spread can be viewed as a synthetic money market position. The above example of a short position in the six month contract matched by a long position in the nine month contract can be regarded as a six month future on a three month T-bill. In developed financial markets, the cost of carry is driven by a money market interest rate and the risk in calendar spreads is very low. In India, however, unless banks and institutions enter the calendar spread in a big way, it is possible that the cost of carry would be driven by an unorganised money market rate as in the case of the badla market. These interest rates could be highly volatile. The group took on record some results provided by Prof. Varma from his ongoing research into the behaviour of the implicit cost of carry between markets operating on different settlement cycles (Appendix 2). Given the evidence that the cost of carry is not an efficient money market rate, prudence demands that the margin on calendar spreads be far higher than international practice. Moreover, the margin system should operate smoothly when a calendar spread is turned into a naked short or long position on the index either by the expiry of one of the legs or by the closing out of the position in one of the legs. The group therefore recommends that:
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